بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Oil is above $108. Stocks swung 600 points intraday before clawing back. And a single headline out of Iranian state media was enough to briefly turn the market green. Here's what's actually happening and how to think about it.
| ⚡ TODAY AT A GLANCE | |||
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🤷 The market wants good news. It just can't decide if this is it.
Today was a study in whipsaw. The Dow opened down more than 600 points. Then Iranian state media reported that Iran is working with Oman on a protocol to monitor ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Stocks ripped. Then investors thought about it a little longer and pulled back. By midday, the Dow was still down around 100 points, the S&P 500 off 0.1%, and the Nasdaq down 0.2%. The VIX crossed 25.
That is the market's tell right now: every positive headline produces a reflexive rally, followed by a sober reassessment that the underlying uncertainty hasn't actually changed.
It hasn't. Wednesday night, Trump said the US is "getting very close" to ending the conflict, but also promised to hit Tehran "extremely hard" and said "over the next two to three weeks, we're going to bring them back to the stone ages." Iran's president has reportedly asked for a ceasefire, but Trump has made clear the US will only consider it once the Strait is "open, free, and clear."
One detail worth watching that most investors are missing: the Strait matters less for oil than people think. What it matters enormously for is helium. Helium is used to cool semiconductor processors and has no substitute. With the global chip supply chain already fragile, a prolonged Hormuz disruption is an indirect tax on every AI infrastructure build in the world. Expect that angle to get more attention if this drags into a third week.
Today is also the last trading session of a shortened week. Markets close tomorrow for Good Friday. The March jobs report drops Friday morning into a closed market, meaning any reaction will hit Monday's open with full force.
This is exactly the kind of session that destroys undisciplined portfolios. Not because of what the market does, but because of what investors do in response to it. Chasing the bounce and then panic-selling the fade is how retail investors chronically underperform.
Keep your emergency fund untouched. Hold cash. Watch the VIX. When it crosses above 30, history says that is the time to deploy, not retreat. We are not there yet, but we are watching.
Markets move on fear. Capital compounds on conviction and remember:
"Surely with hardship comes ease." — Surah Ash-Sharh, 94:5
🚀 SpaceX files for the largest IPO in history. We're passing.
SpaceX has filed confidentially with the SEC at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation, which would eclipse Saudi Aramco's $29 billion debut and make it the largest public offering in history. The valuation was boosted by February's all-stock merger with xAI, folding in Grok and orbital data centers alongside the existing Starlink and rocket business.
We're not investing, for two reasons.
First, SpaceX derives significant revenue from US defense contracts. Given the recent folly of U.S. foreign policy, this is difficult to clear from a Shariah standpoint. That's not a technicality. It's a values-level filter.
Second, we don't invest in IPOs as a rule. At listing, share prices already reflect the best-case scenario, inflated further by institutional hype and retail FOMO. We wait for two to three quarters of public reporting before forming a view on fundamentals.
Consider Figma: shares surged past $120 at debut and have since fallen to around $20. SpaceX is a more durable business than Figma, but the principle holds. Let the hype clear, then evaluate.
If the ethical concerns weren't there, we'd revisit it in late 2026. For now, it's a pass.
📈 Solana's price is down 50%. Its usage is not.
SOL sits near $83, off more than 50% from its 2025 peak. The price tells one story. The on-chain data tells another.
In February 2026, Solana processed $650 billion in stablecoin transactions, nearly triple the prior month. For comparison, CME gold futures cleared $208 billion in the same period. Solana's stablecoin volume is now nine times gold futures. Western Union launched $USDPT on Solana. Visa is settling transactions on the network. PayPal is using it for $PYUSD. BlackRock is building on it. These are not experiments. These are multi-year infrastructure commitments.
Tokenized asset holders are up 440% year-over-year. 40 million unique wallets were active in February alone.
Short term, the macro pressure is real. Risk-off conditions and oil above $100 weigh on every risk asset including crypto. But we invest in fundamentals, not sentiment. Most users sending money via USDPT or settling via PYUSD will never know they're using Solana. That's the point. The rails just need to work. These rails work. We're watching the $75 to $80 range closely.
The price is not the protocol.
| 📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT | ||||
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❓ Is ELF Beauty Halal to invest in?
😅 Starting next quarter companies will report a new metric
The market will keep oscillating until there is real clarity on the Strait. Until then, the most important thing you can do is nothing rash. Discipline in volatility is not passive. It's the most active choice you can make.
May Allah grant us patience and clarity.
Best Regards,
Team @PIF
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