بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
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🌍️ Macro
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♟ The Fed Has Limited Options
Oil is sending a specific message today. WTI at $93, Brent at $100, Hormuz still closed, and roughly 20% of global seaborne oil still routed through a strait nobody is delivering through. Every extra day without a deal keeps energy and fertilizer costs structurally elevated. Food prices move on fertilizer. CPI moves on food. The math does not get softer from here.
That leaves the Fed in a trap it built itself. If oil stays above $90, the 50/50 rate-cut odds the market priced last week quietly die. But a hike is off the table too. The US is servicing roughly $36T in debt at interest costs north of $1.2T a year, and every 25 bps of additional tightening adds tens of billions to that line. The bond market knows it. Which is why yields are drifting without conviction in either direction.
For the PIF book, the stalemate is the trade. Gold keeps getting bid into a weaker dollar and stuck real rates, even if it takes the occasional ceasefire sell-off on the chin. $AEM and $GLDM are the two watchlist names carrying that thesis today.
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🏢 Company Spotlight
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💊 Amazon entered obesity care. Hims has been here before.
Amazon One Medical added GLP-1 obesity treatment this week: $25 a month with insurance, cash-pay Wegovy at $299. HIMS was trading at $28.82 before the headline pushed it down 6% intraday. That selloff makes sense if you think Hims is a prescription retailer. It makes no sense if you think Hims is what we think it is.
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🔍 PIF TAKE
We've been here before. Amazon Pharmacy launched in 2020. Eli Lilly opened LillyDirect in 2024. Ro has been in telehealth since 2017. Every time a new entrant shows up, Hims takes a headline hit. Every time, Hims keeps compounding subscribers. Every time, the entrant becomes a footnote nine months later. Yawn.
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Access our Hims price target. View the watchlist → |
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🏢 Company Spotlight
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⛏ Agnico Eagle: Read the Selloff, Not the Headline
Agnico Eagle Mines is making a long-term bet on Finland's gold belt.
Agnico announced three simultaneous acquisitions consolidating the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt: Rupert Resources (~$2.12B, 67% premium in AEM shares), Aurion Resources (~$350M cash, 46% premium), and B2Gold's 70% Fingold JV stake ($325M). The result is 2,492 sq km under one roof, the Ikkari project folded into Agnico's existing Kittilä mine (Europe's largest primary gold mine), and a pathway to ~500K oz of annual district production within a decade, with up to ~$365M in projected synergies.
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🔍 PIF TAKE
We view Agnico's expansion strategy favorably. Management is growing the company's footprint at a moment when AEM shares trade at a premium valuation, which means acquisitions funded by stock issuance are accretive rather than dilutive to long-term value per share. The balance sheet remains strong, giving Agnico the flexibility to pursue additional deals, grow its dividend, or buy back shares opportunistically.
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See our AEM position & price target. View the watchlist → |
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💎 HALAL ALPHA
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💬 FROM THE DISCORD
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A member recently asked whether we are comfortable investing in space exploration companies like Intuitive Machines and Redwire
The space sector tells a compelling story, lunar missions, satellite infrastructure, and the commercialization of low Earth orbit. But the revenue foundation is the issue.
Virtually every publicly listed space company at this stage derives a substantial portion of its revenue from defense and national security contracts. This is structural, not incidental. LUNR holds contracts with DARPA and the Space Force; RDW explicitly positions itself as a national security space company. The same pattern holds across most sector peers.
Where a company's primary revenue is tied to defense, weapons systems or weapons-enabling technologies, we cannot treat it as permissible regardless of how compelling the broader narrative is.
For now, we are not comfortable investing in space companies where defense contracts form the core of the business model.
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The question that prompted this came from our private Discord. Join the conversation → |
Stay grounded in your principles and patient in your positioning.
With barakah,
Team @PIF
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